With Isaiah Thomas moving into the starting lineup at point guard and either Ben McLemore or Marcus Thornton at shooting guard, the Kings should be able to put more outside shooting around Gay than he has had in either of his previous two stops. (The opposite trend held last season, though Gay was more effective after being traded from Memphis to Toronto.) And those lineups outscored opponents by 6.7 points per 48 minutes in that span, during which lineups with Gay at the 3 were outscored. Gay was more effective as a part of small lineups early this season, posting a 17.4 PER at power forward as compared to 12.8 at small forward through Nov. To help facilitate that, the Kings apparently intend to use Gay alongside newly acquired Derrick Williams as something of a stretch 4, per Yahoo!'s Marc Spears. Still, to get back where he was - a volume scorer with average or worse efficiency - Gay will have to be more accurate on long 2-pointers than he has been the past two seasons (or, better yet, cut down on taking them in the first place). Historically, Gay has made at least 60 percent of those shots, and the difference is likely a fluke this early in the season.
Gay is struggling primarily because he has been unable to finish around the basket, making just 51.0 percent of his attempts at the rim, per NBA.com/Stats. Based on my wins above replacement system ( WARP), he's rated below average thus far while collecting $17.9 million. Gay's player efficiency rating (PER) slipped from 17.8 in both 2010-12 to 15.6 last season and 15.9 so far this season.
Will it be the one who was overpaid but useful through 2011-12 or the version of the past two seasons who has shot too inefficiently for his ability to create shots to be valuable? While the Sacramento Kings are dealing four players and getting three back, this trade is ultimately entirely about Rudy Gay and which version of Gay Sacramento is getting.